In this issue

Google has become synonymous with search.     Google currently has a near monopoly position with estimates around 85% of searches worldwide. Like Hoover the brand name has become a verb. 

In my view this is a very unhealthy situation - but it is all due to change.

The key players

There are really a small number of search sites that dominate the internet:

• Google
• Yahoo
• AOL
• Microsoft Network (MSN)

More or less in this order, and the first three  (about three quarters of searches) use results from Google, so its no wonder that Google has such a dominant position.  This is for worldwide use by the way; in Europe MSN is much bigger, but it doesn't change the general picture.

You may be wondering why a site like Yahoo, which is older than Google is using Google results.  The answer is that Yahoo needs a search engine to supplement its own directory. 

Directory / Search Engine; why are they different?

A search engine like Google simply trawls through the internet looking for keywords.  It is an automated process, and you just need some smart programmers to write your software, plus enough computer power and you are in business.

Yahoo was the first and biggest directory.  David Filo and Jerry Yang, Ph.D. candidates at Stanford University, started their guide in a campus trailer in February 1994. It has now grown into a giant, with each index category hand-maintained by humans.  Humans!  That means salaries, human resources, management, health plans and so on.  In other words directories are work.  They are also expensive. 

Any search site worth its salt these days has two components a keyword search and a directory, and these components work together.

• Can't find your site in the directory - never mind do a search
• You have some search results but you want other sites in the same general area - look in the directory.

A Directory is to a search engines what a thesaurus is to a dictionary. 

The key relationships

None of the key players has both components itself - yet.

• Yahoo - has its own directory but gives search results from Google
• Google - is a search engine, but which links to a directory provided by the Open Directory Project
• Microsoft network (MSN) - uses Inktomi search and Looksmart directory
• AOL uses Google and the Open Directory Project.

So under the four big players we mentioned above, are the walk-on roles.

• The Open Directory Project is run by a large number of volunteers who build the directory. 
• Inktomi is one of the original generation of search engines, but which has had the business model of supplying others with data rather than being a major portal themselves.
• Looksmart is another directory. 

What is changing? 

Two big news items indicate major changes coming later this year or early next year.  

• Yahoo has bought Inktomi.  They are also buying the paid placement company Overture, which happens to own another search engine - Alta Vista.  You can make book they will be dropping Google.   
• Microsoft is rumoured to be writing their own search engine.  We have heard these rumours before, but this time they look real. 

The result of this will be three big players with three different sets of technology and results. 

1. Google / Open Directory
2. Yahoo / Inktomi
3. MSN / Looksmart

There is nothing to say that Google will retain its top position:

• Yahoo is a very close second, and it wouldn't take much to overtake Google, especially with a lot of hype about its new search tool.
• Microsoft has a huge built-in advantage because it controls the browser used by the vast majority of Internet users.  With hype about its new search tool, no doubt with some fancy USP, they could move up the table.

So longer term we could easily see Google in third instead of top position. For the first time in years we will have three separate major offerings which are totally independent of each other.  And about time too!